Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.285855 0.348336 0.424819 0.526565 0.660240 0.832559 1.075969e+00
2025-04-27 0.177432 0.235094 0.313695 0.431680 0.609786 0.878244 1.333668e+00
2025-05-04 0.123229 0.174601 0.251069 0.378311 0.595795 0.975774 1.751532e+00
2025-05-11 0.088450 0.132361 0.202672 0.330509 0.574740 1.065210 2.272410e+00
2025-05-18 0.064201 0.100350 0.161756 0.281969 0.534855 1.111047 2.811005e+00
2025-05-25 0.047933 0.077704 0.130874 0.241873 0.496471 1.149435 3.458874e+00
2025-06-01 0.038684 0.065126 0.114896 0.226232 0.507329 1.334349 5.002281e+00
2025-06-08 0.031970 0.055706 0.102602 0.214583 0.525092 1.576686 7.580920e+00
2025-06-15 0.027173 0.048925 0.093958 0.208655 0.558631 1.937261 1.255239e+01
2025-06-22 0.023394 0.043399 0.086640 0.203678 0.595710 2.399569 2.198967e+01
2025-06-29 0.019814 0.037607 0.077366 0.190257 0.598089 2.740142 3.506427e+01
2025-07-06 0.015786 0.030215 0.062854 0.157196 0.507944 2.448293 3.612021e+01
2025-07-13 0.013778 0.027004 0.057982 0.152253 0.533592 3.004566 7.168955e+01
2025-07-20 0.012402 0.024952 0.055519 0.154162 0.594896 4.076242 2.018100e+02
2025-07-27 0.011343 0.023439 0.054106 0.159368 0.683442 5.904657 9.036344e+02
2025-08-03 0.010266 0.021694 0.051666 0.160168 0.755302 8.176170 6.173489e+03
2025-08-10 0.009134 0.019623 0.047840 0.154202 0.783513 10.255730 7.016704e+04
2025-08-17 0.008107 0.017656 0.043889 0.146190 0.792250 12.342489 7.692753e+06
2025-08-24 0.007456 0.016544 0.042245 0.147350 0.876379 17.882151 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006886 0.015554 0.040752 0.148666 0.970991 26.663828 NaN
2025-09-07 0.006423 0.014773 0.039748 0.152001 1.099076 43.121066 NaN
2025-09-14 0.005998 0.014029 0.038695 0.154760 1.236983 71.930939 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005496 0.012996 0.036436 0.150155 1.285758 100.885417 NaN